- Estimate
- A value for a past or current year produced by a statistical agency from registration data, censuses, or surveys. Estimates are revised as better information arrives.
- Projection
- A modelled value for a future year, conditional on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. A projection is not a forecast or a prediction of what will happen.
- Provisional figure (nowcast)
- An early value published before the final annual statistics, often covering part of a year. Provisional figures are the most current numbers available and the most likely to be revised.
- Replacement-level fertility
- The total fertility rate at which a generation exactly replaces itself, about 2.1 births per woman in countries with low child mortality. Sustained rates below this level shrink a population over the long run, absent migration.
- Period vs cohort measure
- A period measure such as the total fertility rate describes one calendar year as if current rates applied for a whole lifetime. A cohort measure follows real people over time. Period rates react faster to shifts in the timing of births.
- Crude rate
- An event count divided by total population, usually per 1,000 people. Crude rates are not adjusted for age structure, so an older population shows a higher crude death rate even with identical mortality risk at every age.
- Age-standardised rate
- A rate recalculated against a common reference age structure so that populations of different ages can be compared directly.
- Foreign-born vs foreign citizenship
- Foreign-born counts where a person was born. Foreign citizenship counts the passport they hold. The two differ substantially in countries where naturalisation is common, and neither is the same as ancestry or migration background.
- Net migration
- Arrivals minus departures over a period. A net figure of zero can mean no movement at all, or very large flows in both directions that happen to cancel out.
- Aggregate
- A region, income group, or world total rather than a single country. Aggregates are excluded from country rankings and maps on this site.